Turkey’s most consequential election in its recent history is right around the corner. (May 14th) So close to the elections, the nation is bedeviled by natural disasters, economic downturn and general dismay that may see the 20 year incumbent President Erdoğan finally unseated by his challenger, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
President Erdoğan has long been seen as a strong leader by his supporters but an authoritarian strong-man by his opponents. Given his dwindling popularity, this may very well be both his first and final electoral loss, as opposition boss Kılıçdaroğlu continues to rack up points over him in the polls. But it’s anything but a forgone conclusion if Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu’s numbers will hold until the elections, let alone pan out like in the polls. For insight into the electorate’s Medyascope’s Ufuk Çeri interviewed voters and political figures in the opposition’s stronghold of Aydın, while Ayşegül Karagöz did likewise in the ruling coalition’s home turf of Sakarya.
“Erdogan will get the lowest vote share of his career”
CHP’s Provincial Chairman Ecevit Keleş stated that the voting preferences of the citizens in Sakarya have changed and claimed that Erdogan will receive the lowest vote share of his career:
“I want to speak as a citizen, not as a politician. We estimate that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s votes in Sakarya will be at the lowest in twenty years. I would like to say here that our esteemed party president and 13th presidential candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, will surpass Erdoğan.”
“People want change”
İYİ Party Sakarya Provincial Chairman Fatih Akgün stated that the voters are no longer satisfied with the current government and that he thinks the AK Party will lose:
“We have been on the streets every day since the İYİ Party was founded. Our citizens now think that a change is needed. Of course, there were those who said that they benefited a lot from the AKP during their earlier years. But today, ‘It’s time for change, a change is necessary. In this sense, they will not get the votes they want and they will lose.”
“The reason why the AK Party is strong in Sakarya is the structure of the opposition”
However, not everyone shares Keleş and Akgün’s optimism. President of Sakarya Journalists Association Sezai Matur manages opposition’s expectations, particularly criticizing their youth outreach.
“The opposition does not do any organizing work for young people. In particular, we are neighbors with the CHP and I see that there are no young people in the party. In general terms, CHP organizations in Sakarya are not in search of new blood, they do not do much work to gain young voters. That’s their biggest shortfall. Even after previous electoral losses in local races, there is no structure in place to garner youth support.”
“İYİ Party will lose votes in Sakarya”
Matur also said that Meral Akşener’s temporary and unceremonious departure from the opposition coalition is sure to cost the party votes in Sakarya:
“I said in an interview with Medyascope before that the İYİ Party is stronger in Sakarya, but I think the balances have changed after it left the coalition. I think and observe that the İYİ Party is really losing power. I have heard from many people around me who love Meral Akşener (İYİ Party chair) say that it was the wrong thing to do. She did return a few days later and there will be a recovery period, but it will cost them votes.”
A different outlook in Aydın
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Aydın is a western province on the Aegean coast that has historically been considered the opposition’s stronghold. Aydın has unequivocally come out for main opposition party CHP in past elections and according to interviews conducted by Ufuk Çeri, there is no reason to think the needle has shifted in the other direction.
“The people of Aydın do not want the government involved in their private lives”
20 years of AKP rule has seen the implementation of increasingly more restrictive and socially conservative policies; from banning concerts and festivals to restrictions on purchase of alcohol, though no outright bans. Aydın, a province where tourism plays a major role in the economy, has historically enjoyed its social liberties. Local journalist Altan Kemerci doesn’t think that AKP’s socially conservative style of governance has a place in his province:
“People in Aydın are fond of their social life. Aydınites would not allow for oppression or a reflexive ban from any position of power. CHP has been the party of preference for Aydın for years as it is more compatible with the sociological structure of the province in terms of values and morals. And I think it will be the same for a long time to come.”
“Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu is the right choice”
Aydın CHP Provincial Chairman Hikmet Saatçı threw his support behind the opposition’s candidate and his party’s boss Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, saying:
“We, the people of Aydın, wanted Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to be the party’s nominee. Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu is the right choice. I believe that our country will be relieved by Kılıçdaroğlu’s election.”
“The HDP has no problem with the voters that Kılıçdaroğlu represents”
One of the greatest points of concern with the opposition coalition and its chances of a victory has been its tacit support and cooperation with HDP. HDP represents Turkey’s ethnic Kurdish minority, which for the better part of the last century has been oppressed by the ethnic majority and previous political administrations.
The ruling coalition and its supporters have consistently accused the opposition of being in bed with terrorists. Conventional wisdom has always suggested that the opposition’s unofficial coalition with HDP could be a double edged sword; promising Kurdish votes while threatening to alienate its own base; or that HDP’s voter base would reject the coalition outright. But HDP Provincial Co-Chair Aysel Batyar Önsel argues that this notion is far from reality, at least in Aydın:
“The most well organized electorate in Turkey is the HDP’s electorate. As we enter the second century of the republic, our concern is to be able to live in a more just country, where people of different identities can freely express themselves; a nation woven with peace, tranquility and justice. We will act according to the decision of our party headquarters and support Kılıçdaroğlu.”
