Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairman and main opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu met yesterday (March 29) with Memleket Party Chairman and presidential candidate Muharrem İnce at the Memleket Party headquarters in Ankara. Kılıçdaroğlu’s visit was preceded by days of speculation that the CHP Chairman might convince İnce to withdraw from the presidential race. Many in the opposition fear that İnce, a former member of the CHP as well as the party’s 2018 presidential candidate, may steal crucial votes from Kılıçdaroğlu in Turkey’s upcoming elections on May 14. Wednesday’s meeting, however, ended without a withdrawal announcement from İnce.
Medyascope’s Ankara correspondent Hıdır Göktaş reported early Thursday morning that the meeting between the two presidential candidates on Wednesday had involved no offer or withdrawal request from Kılıçdaroğlu. It had been widely suspected that Kılıçdaroğlu might come into Wednesday’s meeting with a request for İnce’s withdrawal in exchange for other promises such as ministry appointments in a hypothetical Kılıçdaroğlu presidential administration. The sources who spoke to Göktaş, however, indicated that Kılıçdaroğlu had made no offer of this type and that the topic of both men’s presidential candidacies had in fact not been discussed.
Nevertheless, İnce’s comments and other reporting following the meeting on Wednesday fueled speculation that negotiations were not over and a potential withdrawal deal could still be reached. When asked in the post-meeting press conference whether he was withdrawing his candidacy, İnce responded cryptically “I said nothing of the sort.” İnce had previously stated that he was open for negotiations with Kılıçdaroğlu, signalling that his withdrawal from the race could be secured with the right offer from the opposition leader. Other reports from this morning indicating that negotiations between the CHP and Memleket Parties could continue into Thursday also added to suspicion that an İnce withdrawal announcement was still on the table.
A potential İnce withdrawal deal faces a looming Thursday evening deadline. On Friday morning (31 March) the official presidential candidate list will be published, after which point the names of all declared candidates will appear on May’s ballots regardless of whether they choose to drop out in the interim. Therefore, İnce could still theoretically receive votes on May 14 if he withdraws from Friday onwards. A withdrawal from the Memleket Party head would thus be illogical after this deadline and would not succeed in shoring up votes for Kılıçdaroğlu, who is the most likely second-choice pick for İnce supporters.
Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy received a major boost earlier this month when the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), a left-leaning pro-Kurdish party that receives heavy support in Turkey’s southeast, elected not to field their own candidate in a show of support for Kılıçdaroğlu. The choice from the HDP not to run their own candidate came after a meeting with Kılıçdaroğlu in Ankara that closely resembled Wednesday’s meeting between Kılıçdaroğlu and İnce. Although the HDP remains formally outside of Kılıçdaroğlu’s Table of Six electoral alliance, the move was important as it signaled a boost in Kurdish support for Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy, a key component of a potential victory. Nevertheless, the formal entry of Muharrem İnce into the presidential race on Monday exacerbated fears that the opposition vote may be splintered among several candidates, and eventuality that would strengthen President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s hand and significantly increase the likelihood of a second-round run-off. The main opposition alliance is eager to avoid a run-off scenario, which would be automatically triggered if no candidate succeeds in winning 50% of the vote on May 14.
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İnce officially entered Turkey’s presidential race Monday after reaching the 100,000 signature quota required from smaller parties in order to field candidates. Parties that fail to garner a total of 10% of votes in the most recent parliamentary elections are required to collect citizen signatures in order to run their own candidate. Sinan Oğan, the joint candidate from the Ata Alliance, also reached the 100,000 signature quota over the weekend, solidifying a four-candidate presidential field consisting of Erdoğan, Kılıçdaroğlu, İnce, and Oğan. İnce, the CHP’s candidate in the 2018 elections against Erdoğan, had unsuccessfully tried to unseat Kılıçdaroğlu as party chairman after a landslide defeat against the president. İnce then left the CHP in February 2021 and went on to form the Memleket Party several months later. His presidential candidacy has been popular with Gen-Z voters and CHP voters who dislike Kılıçdaroğlu, as the two men occupy a similar center-left position in the Turkish political sphere.
