New polls by Toplum, Metropoll, and Panorama show Turkey’s main opposition gaining ground. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) is pulling even with or surpassing Erdoğan’s long-ruling AKP. This rise in popularity reflects growing discontent with the government. The CHP’s surge follows its commanding performance in local elections this March. The polls confirm a shift in voter sentiment, challenging the AKP’s dominance. Turkey’s political landscape is increasingly competitive as the opposition gains momentum. These results could signal significant changes ahead for both parties.
Toplum’s report described CHP as “settling into their first place position” as Turkey’s leading party. Their poll showed the main opposition leading the AKP by 3.8%, with 32.7% support nationwide.
However, the numbers show a 5% drop in CHP support and a 4% drop for AKP compared to the 2024 election results. The 37% of votes won by CHP in Turkey’s most recent polls still marked the party’s best showing in decades.
Significant voter movement from the center-right İYİ Party, ultranationalist Zafer Party, and pro-Kurdish DEM Party has fueled the CHP’s rise, according to the report. Moreover, the CHP’s strength among young voters aged 18-24 has contributed to this growth. Respondents in this age group prefer the CHP over the AKP by an 8.2% margin.
Other polls from Panorama and Metropoll show the CHP neck-and-neck with Turkey’s ruling party. AKP leads by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively, when undecided voters are allocated to all parties.
2028 Presidential Candidates
Polling revealed uncertainty in the ruling bloc about who would be the next presidential candidate. However, this uncertainty only exists if Erdoğan is barred from running for a third term.
Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, led the pack with 18.1% support for president. Whereas, Erdoğan’s son-in-law, Selçuk Bayraktar, chairman of Baykar defense, came in second with 12.9%.
The polling also revealed mediocre popularity among Turkey’s current incumbent politicians. Additionally, it showed low support for prospective candidates in the 2028 presidential election. Respondents were asked to rank various presidential candidates on a scale from 1 to 10. Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş was the only incumbent politician who scored higher than 5 with an average rating of 5.9. President Erdoğan and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, meanwhile, tied with average ratings of 5.0.
CHP’s leading contenders
Both İmamoğlu and Yavaş are viewed as the leading contenders for the CHP’s presidential candidate. Moreover, they are expected to run in Turkey’s next presidential election, set for 2028.
Additionally, Yavaş earned the highest marks in the ‘out of 10’ ranking and was the top pick. He received 26.5% of the vote for the opposition’s presidential candidate in upcoming elections. İmamoğlu followed closely with 20.2%.
The poll noted that İmamoğlu was the most popular choice among CHP voters . Meanwhile, Yavaş’s popularity came partly from voters aligned with farther-right parties; like İYİ Party, Zafer Party, and New Welfare Party.
Former İYİ Party voters who switched to the CHP are particularly fueling Yavaş’s support. Meanwhile, despite performing well with Kurdish voters, İmamoğlu lacks support among nationalists. This seems to be the main reason for his lower backing compared to his colleague in Ankara.
Economy
The Toplum poll also investigated voter attitudes toward major issues such as the economy and immigration. Additionally, it examined views on Atatürk and religion among the electorate.
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About 90% of opposition voters described themselves as “very dissatisfied” with the economy. Furthermore, young university graduates are leading this group of dissatisfied voters.
76.7% of respondents overall did not believe that ‘the economy will be fixed within the next year.’
Immigration
Opposition to immigration emerged as the most unifying issue among those surveyed. Notably, only 5.7% of respondents believed that immigration to Turkey should continue as is.
A significant 78.1% of respondents stated that “immigrants must be sent back immediately.” In contrast, only 16.2% agreed with the statement that “immigrants with qualifications should be allowed to stay.”
Atatürk
83.7% of respondents expressed a positive view of Turkey’s founding father Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The figure was highest among CHP respondents at 97%. However, only 69.3% of voters from the conservative Islamist New Welfare Party expressed a positive view of the founding father.
Following immigration, Adoration for Atatürk emerged as the second most uniting issue among respondents.
Freedom
Regarding the question, “Do you feel free in Turkey?”, the AKP responded positively at 73.3%. Meanwhile, their coalition partner, the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), reported an even higher positive response rate of 78.7%.
These numbers, however, were flipped for respondents identifying with opposition parties. Seventy-seven point one percent of DEM Party supporters and seventy-one point three percent of CHP supporters stated that they do not feel free in Turkey. Overall, the numbers were almost evenly divided between the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ camps, with 50.4% and 49.6%, respectively.
Written for Medyascope by Leo Kendrick
