What happened in Turkey’s election and what is next?

The first round of Turkey’s presidential election has come and gone, and the country is now four days into an intense 14-day stretch of campaigning before the runoff round on May 28. In Sunday’s contest, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan narrowly missed a first round victory with 49.25% of the vote. He was trailed by main opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu who won 45.06%. Third party far-right nationalist candidate Sinan Oğan, meanwhile, won 5.28% of Sunday’s vote. The runoff round on May 28 will feature Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu head-to-head to elect Turkey’s next president. President Erdoğan’s coalition consisting of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the National Action Party (MHP) already secured parliamentary control in Sunday’s polls, strengthening the president’s hand heading into the presidential runoff.

Underperformance by the opposition

The results of Sunday’s first round were widely seen as an underperformance for the main opposition. Polls had consistently shown Kılıçdaroğlu with a modest lead over the president, and many experts had predicted an opposition first-round victory as well as parliamentary control. Neither materialized on Sunday evening. Instead, Kılıçdaroğlu faces a nearly five-point deficit that he must make up over the two week interim. While opposition leaders were careful to project optimism following the poor showing, the mood was undoubtedly one of disappointment among opposition supporters throughout Turkey on Sunday night and early Monday morning as results became clear.

Outright victory eludes Erdoğan

If there was a silver lining for the opposition to be had, it was the fact that the president had failed to secure an outright victory in the first round. Although this was hardly a consolation for many, it is a notable opposition achievement following two decades of Erdoğan power. May 28 will mark Turkey’s first second-round runoff since a new presidential system was instituted in 2018, thus marking the first time in Erdoğan’s 20-year reign that he has failed to win outright. Some pointed to the fact that Kılıçdaroğlu’s and third-party candidate Oğan’s vote totals put the two ahead of the president, meaning more voters had voted against the strongman than for him. 

If Sunday night offered any lesson, however, it was perhaps a proof of the durability of President Erdoğan’s socially-conservative Sunni base. Despite soaring inflation in recent years and widespread criticism for his government’s response to February 6’s devastating earthquakes in southeastern Anatolia, the presidential election’s first round showed the loyalty of the AKP’s supporters, a phenomenon that defied assumptions that dire economic conditions might finally break Erdoğan’s grip on this large plurality of the electorate.

Objections from YSP, TİP

Tuesday (May 16) was marked by allegations from the pro-Kurdish Green Left Party (YSP) that Turkey’s Supreme Election Council (YSK) had systematically switched votes from the YSP to the far-right nationalist MHP in hundreds of polling places across Turkey. The Turkish Workers Party (TİP) joined the YSP in filing objections in these districts. The error had allegedly occurred on the official reports (tutanak) sent by each polling station to the YSK indicating the number of parliamentary votes for each party. 

Oğan endorsement

The coming endorsement from Sinan Oğan, expected to be announced sometime this week, will also be a significant factor heading into the second round. Nationalist candidates had a better-than-expected showing on Sunday, and the endorsement of the third-party candidate will be a sought-after prize by both sides. 

Oğan, a former MHP member, was critical of both Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu throughout the campaign. Oğan was one of a large number of MHP parliamentarians who left the party in 2016-2017 following controversy over party leader Devlet Bahçeli’s support for Erdoğan’s 2017 constitutional referendum that introduced a new executive presidential system in Turkey. The MHP’s formal coalition with Erdoğan’s AKP from 2018 onwards saw the departure of numerous MHP rank-and-file in what was described as a schism of Turkey’s far-right nationalists. Oğan has also recently been critical of Erdoğan’s alliance with the far-right Kurdish HÜDA PAR party, which is widely alleged to have links to the Kurdish Hezbollah.

Oğan has also criticized Kılıçdaroğlu’s closeness with Turkey’s pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) throughout the campaign. While the HDP remains outside of Kılıçdaroğlu’s official coalition, the party elected not to run their own presidential candidate in favor of supporting Kılıçdaroğlu, a move that was vocally supported by the party’s imprisoned former co-leader Selahattin Demirtaş, who remains influential with the country’s sizeable Kurdish minority. Kılıçdaroğlu’s overwhelming victories in Kurdish majority provinces such as Diyarbakır and Hakkari on Sunday night were evidence of this cooperation with the pro-Kurdish bloc. 

Oğan, however, has insisted that any endorsement of Kılıçdaroğlu would be contingent on his exclusion of the HDP. Such a move, while potentially winning the opposition leader some of Oğan’s nationalist votes, would also significantly risk alienating Kurdish voters in the runoff round.

Yesterday (May 17), Oğan announced “I will make my decision [on a potential endorsement] within 1-2 days.”

Nationalist pivot from Kılıçdaroğlu

In an attempt to capture a larger share of the nationalist vote in the second round, recent days have seen a noticeable uptick in nationalist rhetoric coming from Kılıçdaroğlu’s camp. Yesterday, the opposition leader released a video promising to send some 10 million Syrian refugees residing in Turkey back to Syria: “We will not surrender our homeland to this mentality that allowed 10 million undocumented refugees to enter our country. The security of our border is a matter of honor; that is what we have said.” Warning that Turkey’s Syrian population could balloon to some 30 million under Erdoğan, Kılıçdaroğlu’s video was criticized by some who noted that Turkey’s Syrian population is significantly smaller than the opposition candidate indicated, and is usually estimated at around 3-4 million.

President Erdoğan has been notably welcoming to Syrian refugees through the years, even as public opinion has soured against them. In a television interview prior to Sunday’s elections, Erdoğan said “I cannot support the idea of sending the refugees back to Syria. It is un-Islamic.” While the topic received attention throughout the campaign, yesterday’s video from Kılıçdaroğlu indicated that the opposition will attempt to highlight the refugee issue in the two-week interim in order to secure more nationalist support. 

In a further sign that he is playing for nationalist votes, Kılıçdaroğlu made a speech today (May 18) indicating that he plans to take a harder stance towards ‘terror groups’. Accusing Erdoğan of making deals with terrorist organizations behind the scenes, Kılıçdaroğlu said:

“Weren’t you the one sitting with terrorists at the negotiating table, behind closed doors? Here I would like to announce openly: I have never negotiated with terrorists and I do not plan to. Erdoğan, I will not follow the shadowy path that you have followed. I will work with honesty, for my country. Aren’t you the one who worked with FETÖ? I have never stood with those who plot against our armed forces, nor will I ever.”

Kılıçdaroğlu’s comments make references to Erdoğan’s former close relationship with the Gülen Movement (FETÖ), an Islamist organization now recognized by the Turkish government as a terrorist group and accused of orchestrating 2016’s failed coup d’etat attempt.

In his speech, Kılıçdaroğlu also promised to find and prosecute those responsible for the killing of Sinan Ateş, former leader of Turkey’s far-right nationalist Grey Wolves organization. Ateş was killed by gunmen in late 2022 and his murder remains unsolved.