A poll released earlier today (May 25) by polling firm KONDA Research has estimated President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan capturing 52.7% of the vote in Turkey’s upcoming presidential runoff election this Sunday, May 28. His main challenger and opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, meanwhile, is projected to capture some 47.3% of the vote.
The poll was conducted between May 20-21 in which the voting preferences of 3607 participants in 34 different provinces were surveyed. The poll was conducted face-to-face with voters and controlled for both gender and age.
KONDA provided the following notes regarding the findings:
“We would like to point out three factors with the potential to affect these findings as well as the results on May 28:
-Firstly is the potential effect of any events that occur between the dates of May 20-21 and the election.
-Secondly is the recent dissolution of the Ata Alliance that occurred following the first round of the presidential election. During this time party leaders have offered various endorsements which all have the potential to affect the movement of votes heading into the second round.
-Thirdly is the fact that this will be Turkey’s first experience with a presidential runoff election, making it difficult to predict the expected voter turnout.”
Sinan Oğan, the third-placed candidate from the first round, announced on Monday his endorsement of President Erdoğan for the runoff. The potential effect of Oğan’s endorsement on the second round, however, remains uncertain since the dissolution of his Ata Alliance. Oğan’s alliance partner Ümit Özdağ, leader of the ultranationalist anti-immigrant Victory Party, threw his support behind Kılıçdaroğlu on Wednesday, a move likely to further splinter the nationalist vote.
KONDA polling results from the first round
The inaccuracy of polls from KONDA as well as other firms prior to the first round of May 14 have been widely discussed over the past week and a half. The vast majority of polls had Kılıçdaroğlu with a comfortable lead or even projected an opposition victory in the first round. President Erdoğan, however, defied the predictions of these polls, pulling an upset and besting the opposition leader by nearly 5 points on May 14, delivering a blow to the opposition and disproving the majority of pollsters.
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KONDA’s original predictions prior to May 14 had projected Kılıçdaroğlu leading with some 49.3% to Erdoğan’s 43.7%, putting the opposition leader just shy of a first round victory.
Just shy of an outright victory, President Erdoğan won 49.52% of the vote in the first round, compared to Kılıçdaroğlu’s 44.88% and Sinan Oğan’s 5.17%.
Written/translated for Medyascope by Leo Kendirck
