The total amount of natural gas discovered by Turkey in the Black Sea has reached 710 billion cubic-meters, after drill ship ‘’Fatih’’ has discovered a new gas source of 54 billion cubic-meters in the Çaycuma-1 field, President Tayyip Erdoğan announced on Monday.
President Erdoğan spoke after the highly anticipated cabinet meeting on Monday (26th), announcing the discovery of an additional 54 billion cubic-meters of natural gas. Erdoğan also told the press that the amount of natural gas resources in Sakarya field were higher than the first estimation, and that it amounted to 652 billion cubic-meters(bcm) instead of the 540 billion that was announced.
‘’After analyzing the numbers, we have revised our estimates of 540 billion cubic meters to 652 billion cubic-meters.’’
Erdoğan also told the press that Turkey added 13 new drilling wells to its Sakarya field.
This has been the fourth announcement of gas discovery in the last two years.
On August 21, 2020 Erdoğan announced the biggest discovery in the history of Turkey. ‘’We have changed our country’s energy policy from top to bottom’’ said Erdoğan.
On October 17,2020 Erdoğan was once again in front of the press, announcing yet another 85 bcm worth of discovery.
Next piece of good news came in July 4, 2021 when Erdoğan announced the discovery of 135 bcm natural gas off the coast of Sakarya.
President Erdoğan gave “good news” four times in the last two years about Turkey’s energy independence with the discovery of natural gas deposits on its Northern coast. As a country that is deeply dependent on natural gas imports, particularly from Russia, energy independence is a major goal for the nation. But it is still unclear if Turkey has sufficient deposits to meet its demand or if these discoveries will lighten the bills for consumers. Will Turkey be able to meet its energy demand through these new wells? And how soon can the newly discovered gas come online for consumers?
Last Monday, preceding his weekly cabinet meeting, President Erdoğan announced that Turkey’s exploration efforts in the Black Sea yielded an additional 58 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas in the Çaycuma-1 field. This new discovery brings Turkey’s total natural gas reserves to 710 (bcm), worth 1 trillion dollars today.
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First “good news” in 2020
President Erdoğan announced the country’s largest gas deposit discovery of 320 bcm back on August 21st of 2020, saying “We have completely transformed our nation’s energy policy”. The gas field discovered by the ship Fatih, was 170 km off the coast of the Zonguldak province and at a depth of 2100 meters.
Another 85 bcm
In October of 2020, Fatih discovered yet another gas field holding 85 bcm. In turn, Turkey’s natural gas reserves increased from 320 bcm to 405 bcm.
More exploration on the way
Erdoğan gave yet another piece of good news in June of 2021. Speaking at the groundbreaking ceremony of the Filyos Natural-gas Processing Plant in Zonguldak province, Erdoğan announced that Fatih had made yet another discovery. This time, worth 135 bcm, off the coast of Sakarya province, bringing the total count up to 540 bcm.
The latest good news
Erdoğan gave the latest good news on Monday evening stating that Fatih had discovered yet another 58 bcm in Çaycuma-1 field. Along with the previous discoveries, Erdoğan claimed that this brings up the total gas deposits to 710 bcm.
However, a simple addition reveals that the total gas reserves don’t add up to 710 bcm, but rather to 598 bcm. President Erdoğan explains how:
“The world’s most competent and reliable reserve assessment company produced 3D models of the 13 wells we drilled in the field. As a result of the detailed analysis of the data based on these models, our previously announced reserve of 540 billion cubic meters was revised as 652 billion cubic meters. Thus, our gas reserve in the Black Sea increased by 170 billion cubic meters with our new discovery in Çaycuma-1 and reached a total of 710 billion cubic meters.”
What happens now?
Medyascopes World News Editor Senem Görür reached Energy and Geopolitical Expert Aydın Sezer who stated:
“If you asked me to summarize it in one or two words, I would say “It’s positive”. But if you asked me to summarize it in three or four words, I would say, “but not so much”.
Prior to Erdoğan’s announcement in August 2020, officials speaking to Reuters estimated that the natural gas deposits in the Black Sea would total 800 bcm. The officials estimated that it would take between 7 to 10 years to bring those wells online.
Sezer referenced this piece by Reuters and said that the “whole thing is playing out like a pre-written script.”
“They are saying that it has just been discovered but are playing it off like it has already been extracted. In order to ascertain the actual volume of gas, you have to drill. But they are announcing solid numbers to the public.”
Can these natural gas deposits meet Turkey’s demand?
When asked “How long would 58 bcm last in Turkey?”, Sezer replies “11 months”
Turkey’s annual gas consumption (bcm)
Source: EPDK
When asked “How long would 800 bcm last Turkey?” Sezer replies “Let’s put the pipelines carrying capacity aside for a moment. If you could bring all of that gas ashore, it would last Turkey between 10 to 12 years.”
Turkey to begin extraction in 2023
The most specific details about Turkey’s natural gas deposits come from Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Fatih Dönmez. Dönmez stated that the extraction for the gas deposits in the Sakarya field would begin in 2023.
Bugün, ülkemizin şu ana kadarki en büyük doğal gaz keşfi olan Karadeniz gazında kritik bir safhaya daha ulaşmanın heyecanını yaşıyoruz.
— Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (@RTErdogan) June 13, 2022
İnşallah 2023’ün ilk çeyreğinde, ilk fazda üretilecek günlük 10 milyon metreküp doğal gazı millî iletim sistemimize aktarmış olacağız. pic.twitter.com/PqZnuLCStl
The Minister also said that from 2026 onwards, the household gas consumption will be sustained by the Black Sea Gas.
