Turkey’s opposition coalition, otherwise known as “The Table of Six”, had finally announced that it had selected their candidate after months of negotiations in a meeting held yesterday(March 03). However, the name of the contender will not be announced until March 6th, a mere 70 days before when the election is expected to be held. Today, opposition member and İYİ Party chair Meral Akşener held a press conference where she denounced the candidate and put the coalition on blast; casting serious doubt on an opposition victory.
Turkey is heading into perhaps the most consequential elections in its recent history. Despite handily securing the 2018 elections, the 20 year incumbent President Erdoğan has been consistently slipping in the polls, which now grants the opposition the best chance for victory in the upcoming race. Erdoğan and his party, AKP, has rarely had a serious challenge to their power during their tenure. However both the president and his party’s popularity has been steadily dwindling due to a seemingly never-ending string of crises in the country.
Officially known as the Nation Alliance, but more commonly referred to as the “The Table of Six”, the coalition is(or was) composed of six parties, seemingly on the opposite sides of the political spectrum. However, the combined strength of the parties managed an average of 5 percentage points over the ruling coalition of AKP and its partner MHP.
This uneasy alliance has at times shown cracks in its integrity; agreeing on a common presidential candidate seemingly being the most hotly contested issue in the group. After much deliberation, the Table of Six announced yesterday that they had finally selected their champion to lock horns with Mr. Erdoğan in May.
Fury of the “Iron Lady”
The coalition’s tumultuous relationship has drawn much media attention as the table’s internal strife has often leaked to the media. One of the most critical obstacles has been getting the leaders to select a single candidate. İYİ Party’s Chair Meral Akşener, often dubbed “Turkey’s Iron Lady” has been under close watch as chatter indicated that she had been slow to endorse the coalitions agreed upon candidate.
According to reports, Akşener requested that she be granted a more “efficacious position” upon the opposition’s victory. There are currently no reports as to the specifics of the ask.
Upon her departure from the meeting, Akşener appeared tight-lipped but positive, responding to questions from the media only with “Everything is going to be well, friends”.
However in a press conference held today Akşener was less than jovial. Akşener proceeded to furiously criticize the coalition and confirmed the rumors:
“The İYİ Party has been captured and forced into selecting an option. We will not bow to it.” Akşener began.
Akşener lamented that their internal polling indicating that either Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu or Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş would serve as the most viable candidate were ignored. Akşener accused the coalition of instead insisting on CHP’s party boss Mr. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
“For over three years, we have frequently and ubiquitously heard the names of two candidates on the streets, in shops and squares. And our public opinion polls have for a long time indicated two clear winners against Mr. Erdoğan. These two names; The Mayor of Ankara Metropolitan Municipality Mr. Mansur Yavaş and Mayor of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mr. Ekrem İmamoğlu. Unfortunately, these candidates were firmly rejected by the members of the table. In other words, our effort to reflect the will of our nation was rejected. And at the last meeting of the Table of Six, an ‘understanding’ was reached.”
Akşener was sharp in her criticism and accusations and only stopped short of announcing the İYİ Party’s withdrawal from the coalition in the near 10 minute press conference; although after her scathing piece, it appears all but assured. Akşener did not take questions preceding the conference.
Most likely candidates
It had been almost a certainty that the candidate will come from CHP as the largest party in the opposition. The most likely candidate remains CHP’s boss Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu; a candidate who has faced much resistance due to concerns over his electability. Conventional wisdom has favored either Istanbul’s Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu or Ankara’s Mayor Mansur Yavaş as the preferred candidate as either of the men have historically polled higher than Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu. However, the latest poll aggregates show that Kılıçdaroğlu has gained 12 points in the last 9 months, overtaking Erdoğan by an average 5 points.
A grave uncertainty
Just this morning, the opposition’s victory had appeared all but assured amidst President Erdoğan’s degrading popularity. However things look far less certain now that the Nation Alliance has likely lost its 2nd most powerful member.
İYİ Party commanded an average of 16% in the polls, which was only second to CHP’s 27% average. The Two parties combined left the ruling coalition in a dire position. However after the chairwoman’s ferocious tirade, the future of the coalition and it’s political viability is in serious doubt.
