What happened in the election? And is Turkey heading into troubled waters?

President Erdoğan wins Turkey’s runoff election 52.14% to 47.86% and heads to his 3rd decade as head of state. While only a few months ago, it appeared that both Erdoğan and AKP’s tenure could come to an end, Erdoğan has managed to once again eke out a victory despite the country’s fledgling economy, eroding rule of law and a delayed response to a recent devastating earthquake. 

While the official results are yet to be finalized, High Election council Ahmet Yener announced that President Erdoğan has won the race by 2.2 million votes. The election turnout was lower in the runoff at 84.2% to 87.04% seen in the first round.

While the Erdoğan administration came under heavy fire for a delayed response to the 2023 earthquakes in South Eastern Turkey, every single one of the most affected provinces voted for Erdoğan. Kahramanmaraş province, the point of origin of the earthquakes, mustered the highest support for Erdoğan at 75.77%, even surpassing Erdoğan’s 2018 Presidential victory of 74.18%. Meanwhile Erdoğan even managed to flip the province of Hatay from the first round.

Erdoğan’s challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu had finished first in the province by less than 500 votes only two weeks ago, Erdoğan got a hair over 2,000 votes in the province, finishing at 50.14% to Kılıçdaroğlu’s 49.86%; a surprising turnout as Hatay experienced the highest number of casualties and received and was slammed by residents for delayed and insufficient search and rescue efforts. 

However, despite Erdoğan’s victory, the incumbent has lost every single major city in this election. While Erdoğan had won Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya, Mersin and Adana back in 2018; every major city in Turkey turned out for Kılıçdaroğlu. Erdoğan had won the critical battleground cities of Istanbul and Ankara handily in 2018, but missed the mark by 1 point each this time around. However, despite losing overall popularity in major cities, it wasn’t enough for Kılıçdaroğlu to get across the finish line.

Voting irregularities

Much like May 14 elections, yesterday’s race was also fraught with allegations of irregularities and occasional violence. 

CHP Esenler District Chairman Kemal Şahin stated that an election observer was assaulted by AKP and MHP members leaving him with broken ribs: “Our observer, Mehmet Eldem, assigned to ballot box number 1091 in Şehit Muhammed Aksu school in Esenler, Fatih, was battered by AKP and MHP members because he objected to the irregularities. He is currently in Sadi Konuk Hospital, Bakırköy, with broken ribs.”

Green Left Party Kocaeli Deputy Ömer Faruk Gergerlioğlu shared a report claiming that a vote count had begun in Şanlıurfa before the polls closed at 5PM.

MHP District Deputy Chairman Yücetan Dilmaç tried to vote in two separate ballot boxes in the same School in Dilovası district of Kocaeli. The ballot box officials filed a report of the incident. Dilmaç stated that he did not know that it was a crime to vote twice. 

According to a statement made by the HDP, AKP supporters attacked and battered Green Left Party observers in Malatya’s Battalgazi district.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1662787071679840256

HDP posted a video alleging AKP and MHP members attacking voters at a polling place in Istanbul: 

“AKP-MHP members are attacking people at Mualla Selcanoğlu school in Kadiköy in an effort to create fear. We will not retreat, we call on everyone to protect the ballot boxes.”

CHP MP Ali Şeker and election observers were assaulted at the polling place by a group of 30 in Şanlıurfa. Şeker stated that a group of 30 launched an assault after they objected to the men voting in place of women.

Green Left Party Mardin MP Kamuran Tanhan stated that violence broke out in the Çavuşlu village of Midyat district when observers objected to open voting.

Green Left Party Erzurum MP Meral Danış Beştaş posted a picture of a pre-selected ballot found in Horasan district.

In the Çınarcık district of Yalova, the ballot box official from the Green Left Party reported that the envelopes brought from outside were inserted into the ballot box.

SYKP stated that two of its officials were assaulted at Antakya Demirköprü Muhtar Abdurrahman Çetiner Primary School as they attempted to prevent illegal voting.

At Kazım Karabekir Secondary School in Ümraniye, Istanbul, AKP members tried to drive out TKP observers, claiming that they had no right to be present.

The Aftermath

In contrast to the May 14 election which hadn’t revealed a frontrunner for hours, yesterday’s vote count was a clear winner in a matter of 3 hours. By 8PM, President Erdoğan was more than certain that he had won and proceeded to give a victory speech atop a campaign bus in front of his private residence in İstanbul. While Erdoğan is not typically known for his subtlety, he was more fiery and ostentatious as he both mocked the opposition’s defeat and their election strategy of forming a coalition of six parties in exchange for MP seats in parliament.

“Let me do a quick calculation. You know, he[Kılıçdaroğlu] says he is a numbers man, right? In 2018, do you know how many MP’s CHP had? They had 146. In 2023, they went up to 169, but they negotiated 40 of their seats away to parties that can’t even get 1%. And so, now what do they have? Now CHP has 129 seats. He[Kılıçdaroğlu] is a numbers man. He knows this stuff well.”

Insatiate with his jabs, Erdoğan then shifted his sights at the LGBT community, saying:

“CHP, HDP and İYİ Party support the LGBT! But that will never flow into AKP, MHP and the People’s Alliance. We hold the family structure as sacred! No one may temper with family.”

Heads of state congratulate Erdoğan on his victory

While the Guardian’s Diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour penned an article titled “West caught between fear and hope as Erdoğan extends 20-year rule in Turkey”, where he argued that Western leaders remained silent throughout the election cycle, “secretly hoping Erdoğan’s 20+ year rule would end”, the silence was broken soon after Erdoğan’s victory speech. 

Dozens of state officials from President Joe Biden, to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President Charles Michel, to strongmen like Russia’s Putin and Hungary’s Orban, showered the once again victorious leader with congratulations. 

https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1662908210594938883?s=20

President Macron of France even Tweeted in Turkish saying: “There are great challenges that France and Turkey will overcome together. The return of peace to Europe, the future of our Eurasian Alliance, the Mediterranean sea. We will continue to move forward together with President Erdoğan, to whom I convey my congratulations on his re-election.”

As well as President Zelensky saying: “

I congratulate the President

@RTErdogan for his victory in the presidential elections. We hope to develop our cooperation for the security and stability of Europe and further strengthen our strategic partnership for the benefit of our countries.”

Even former President Trump congratulated Erdoğan through his Truth Social platform

Written by Murat Türsan

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