Last week’s indictment of US Democratic Senator Bob Menendez on corruption charges has raised optimism that the long-delayed sale of F-16 fighter jets to Ankara may finally take place. Menendez has long been Congress’ most prominent anti-Turkey voice, and the Senator’s role as the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee had given Menendez significant power in dictating whether the fighter jet deal went through. Although Menendez has yet to resign from Congress, he has given up his committee chair position, possibly opening the door to the long awaited F-16 deal.
Last Friday (September 22), federal prosecutors charged Menendez and his wife on corruption charges related to the alleged sharing of US government information to Egyptian officials in exchange for large amounts of money and gifts. An investigation uncovered over $400,000 in cash and large amounts of gold hidden in Menendez’s home. Charges against the Senator allege that evidence such as emails, texts, and other communication between Menendez and the Egyptian government show that he was compensated in exchange for using his committee chairmanship to secure large amounts of military aid for Egypt from the United States. Egyptian officials reportedly also gifted Menendez’s wife with a luxury Mercedes automobile and paid off a significant portion of Menendez’s mortgage.
The New Jersey senator is no stranger to scandal. A corruption investigation in 2015 alleged that wealthy associates had provided Menendez with business class flights, luxury hotel bookings, and large political contributions. However, the absence of evidence of large cash payments to Menendez himself resulted in a hung jury, and Menendez escaped the scandal without receiving formal punishment.
The scandal that resulted in Menendez’s indictment last week promises to bring more significant repercussions for the third-term senator. Numerous Democratic members of Congress, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have publicly called on Menendez to step down from the Senate. The same was not true in 2015, when Democratic Party reactions to his then-corruption investigation were mostly hushed, with no public calls for his resignation.
With Menendez’s political future uncertain, many eyes have turned to how his potential resignation could affect two major outstanding issues between Washington and Ankara; the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey and Turkish approval of Sweden’s NATO bid. Both issues’ intractability has led to an iciness in bilateral relations, especially in recent months. Turkey, an original investor in the United States’ F-35 and F-16 fighter jet program, was removed following Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile system from Moscow in 2017, seen by Washington as a major liability to NATO security. In recent months, Turkey’s feet-dragging on approving Sweden’s NATO membership bid has led to some expectations that the F-16 deal might be approved by Congress should Ankara finally green-light Stockholm’s membership in the bloc. While US President Joe Biden has signaled an openness to approving the F-16 purchase in the event Ankara approves Sweden’s bid, the sale would need to be approved by members of Congress, and it remains uncertain the extent to which Biden would hold sway over the voting congressional members. Menendez’s replacement as Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Ben Cardin has been seen as more friendly to the F-16 sale than his predecessor. Nevertheless, multiple voices who are critical of Ankara and resistant to the F-16 sale remain on the committee, such as Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen and Republican Senator Jim Risch. Just last summer, Risch blocked an arms sale to Hungary due to the latter’s holdout in approving Sweden’s NATO bid, signaling that the Idaho Senator would likely behave similarly towards Ankara.
Yesterday (September 27), Medyascope Editor-in-Chief Ruşen Çakır spoke with foreign policy experts Gönül Tol and Ömer Taşpınar on the weekly Transatlantik segment regarding how the Menendez scandal and his possible resignation could affect the development of these two outstanding issues. Tol serves as founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program, while Taşpınar serves as a Professor at National Defense University & Johns Hopkins University. While Menendez’s exit from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee leadership could pave the way for developments on both fronts, both agreed that the issue is far from settled. Describing the anti-Turkey sentiment that exists in Congress, Taşpınar said:
“To put it shortly, no, this does not mean that Turkey’s wishes will come true. Menendez was a part of the problem [why Washington refused to sell F16’s to Turkey] but he was not the full problem. The problem is more broadly an unwillingness amongst a large base in Congress to provide Turkey with F-16’s…Clearly Menendez’s situation has raised hopes in Turkey [that the F-16 sale will be approved] but the issue was not limited to Menendez. There is a structural problem that exists within the relationship between the US Congress and Turkey and it has to do with Turkey’s image…The basic reason for [anti-Turkey sentiment in Congress] is that although Turkey has verbally committed to admitting Sweden to NATO, they are dragging their feet.”
While Turkey’s recent geostrategic importance in the Ukraine conflict as well as improving relations with countries such as Israel and Greece have the potential to improve Ankara’s reputation in Congress, Taşpınar said, such issues pale in comparison to the importance of Sweden’s unapproved NATO bid.
Describing Congress’ attitude towards Ankara less as an anti-Turkey sentiment and more as an anti-Erdoğan, Tol said:
“I think the issue is less to do with Turkey’s image in Congress and more to do with specific moves Turkey has made. Although there are those in Congress that care about human rights violations and erosion of democracy in Turkey, I do not think that these issues take a front seat at the moment, neither for Biden nor for Congress. What everyone is focused on at the moment is Sweden’s accession to NATO. If Turkey approves Sweden’s bid, I really do not think that any members of Congress will raise a fuss regarding human rights or democracy in Turkey…If Sweden’s NATO membership is approved, I do believe this will contribute significantly to the likelihood of an F-16 sale.”
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Prospective congressional approval of the F-16 deal may set up Washington and Ankara for an uncomfortable waiting game in which both sides hold out action until the reciprocal wish is granted. Regarding the order in which action is taken, Taşpınar said:
“When will all this be finally approved? It’s hard to say. After Turkey announced they would approve Sweden this past summer, the Biden administration was preparing to make a formal thank you announcement. But then Erdogan started dragging his feet and I believe Biden took this as a personal insult. Now I believe both the Biden administration and Congress are expecting Turkey to take the first step by admitting Sweden. For them, it is necessary that this happens before the F-16 deal is approved.”
Written for Medyascope by Leo Kendrick
