Originally scheduled to take place on June 18, 2023, Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) have made recent steps to move the country’s upcoming presidential election to an earlier date in the spring, a change that would be opposed by many opposition parties including the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Following several weeks of speculation, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan confirmed in a statement on Thursday that an earlier election date was indeed a possibility.
Reports that the AKP’s executive board has been actively discussing an earlier election date made headlines in Turkey this week as the country approaches what will be a decisive and highly anticipated presidential election this spring. Turkey’s opposition, which has been fractured and weak throughout much of President Erdoğan’s 20-plus year tenure, appears stronger and more united than in previous election cycles with domestic and international observers billing the contest as a legitimate chance to unseat the long-tenured strongman.
2023 marks the end of President Erdoğan’s first 5-year term under the new presidential system, which was narrowly approved by referendum in 2017 and entered into force the following year. The controversial referendum scrapped the office of Prime Minister, a position President Erdoğan had previously held, and vested full executive powers in the presidency. Critics viewed the change as a power grab by Erdoğan and the AKP, seeking to consolidate power in the aftermath of 2016’s failed coup d’etat attempt. The opposition coalition has pledged to overturn the referendum and return Turkey to its previous system should they take power later this year.
While April 30 and May 7 have been discussed as possible early election dates, reports this week indicated that May 14 appeared the likeliest option. The 30 April option would present difficulties as much of the campaigning leading up to the election would take place during the month of Ramadan. Shifting the election a week earlier would also present issues as it would coincide with the Ramadan holidays, which take place from 21-23 April this year.
Although the original date of June 18th sits comfortably past the Ramadan holidays and before Kurban Bayramı (Feast of the Sacrifice), Turkey’s second major religious holiday, the date has reportedly fallen out of favor as it coincides with major university exams. Should the election move to a second round, it would also coincide with Kurban Bayramı in which some citizens travel to Mecca for the Hajj pilgrimage in late June-early July.
More importantly than these logistical concerns, however, it appears that Turkey’s ruling government is keen to capitalize on recent changes that it believes may reap benefits electorally. A change in retirement age and benefits as well as head-scarf related constitutional amendments are moves that President Erdoğan and the AKP would seek to take advantage of in the event of an early election. The proposed changes to Turkey’s retirement system are expected to be voted on by parliament in January to go into effect the following month.
The recent warming to the notion of an early election marks a shift in attitude for the ruling bloc. Erdoğan had previously rebuffed the suggestion of moving the elections to an earlier date. Amid rapid currency devaluation in December 2021, in which the Lira plunged from 12 to 18 to the Dollar in a matter of days, President Erdoğan made a statement saying: “There will be no early election, period. Our coalition has said this business will take place in June of 2023, and I am also saying this. This is not a comma, but a period.” The swift devaluation, caused in large part by the president’s lowering of central bank interest rates, had led to calls by many opposition members for earlier polls.
CHP officials have announced that while they are open to an early election date prior to 6 April, they would oppose later dates, preferring that the polls take place on 18 June as originally scheduled. On Tuesday (Jan.3), Medyascope spoke with CHP Group Deputy Chairman Engin Özkoç. Speaking of his party’s earlier calls for an early election and the AKP’s recent change in tone, Özkoç said:
“We said that we wanted early elections when the nation was experiencing significant problems. But they [AKP] turned a deaf ear to these calls, and said ‘We will not accept it’ and ‘The election will happen when it happens’. But now, because they are worried about maintaining their positions, they are seeking to move the elections earlier in a fashion that will benefit only themselves and not the general public. This is evidence that they are concerned only for their own political futures, not for those of their voters.”
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“We are concerned with the issues of the people. We do not in any way accept their announcements. We are prepared to have the election this coming June. In spite of our opposition, if they decide to move the election 1.5 months earlier, then we will explain this to the nation.”
Emphasizing the CHP’s belief that the earlier election date is a play for votes by the AKP, Özkoç continued saying: “This insistence [on an earlier election date] is for their own interests. We will oppose this. While Erdoğan’s candidacy is not up for debate, his political existence is. His political survival is threatened and one day this will be accounted for by the legal system.”
Although multıple opposition parties have voiced their objection to the early election date, the powers at their disposal to prevent such a change are limited. In Turkey, election dates can be changed by either a vote in parliament or simply by the president himself. While 360 votes are required to make this change, the AKP and their coalition partners make up only 334 seats, meaning the change would almost certainly be made unilaterally by President Erdoğan. Those opposing the change, meanwhile, would be powerless to stop him.
Regarding the proposed change, Speaker of the Turkish Parliament Mustafa Şentop, a member of the AKP, made the following statement: “The normal election date is June 18. Even if a change is made, it would take 60 days. Both the parliament and the president have the power to move the election date. I do not expect the election date to be moved before April 6.”
CHP spokesperson Faik Öztrak made the following official statement: “We will say yes to a new election date until the beginning of April. If a later date is chosen, then it will be an election designed purely by the AKP’s political engineering.”
The Iyi Party, part of the CHP’s opposition coalition, also articulated their opposition in a statement by spokesperson Kürşad Zorlu, saying “As the Iyi Party we have made a clear and open decision: we will under no circumstances support any early election date past the 6th of April.“
On Thursday morning, a statement from President Erdoğan confirmed several weeks of reports, saying that the AKP was indeed considering the idea of moving the election earlier: “Based on seasonal conditions that we have considered, we may move the election date forward.”
